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Iran Turmoil Raises Nuclear Security Fears
Analysts warn that escalating unrest and political instability in Iran could increase the risk of nuclear material diversion, theft or sabotage amid rising tensions with the United States.
Photo of iran, flag, tehran, and city in Tehran, Iran by Sepehr Aleagha (@sepehr_algh)
In the wake of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s violent crackdown on protests, analysts are warning that internal instability inside the Iranian theocracy could carry serious nuclear proliferation risks.
While U.S. President Donald Trump in recent days appeared to step back from the prospect of a military strike on Iran, he called on Saturday for an end to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s nearly four-decade rule. Trump’s remarks followed comments by Khamenei branding the U.S. president a “criminal” for backing protesters and blaming demonstrators for thousands of deaths.
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At the same time, a U.S. aircraft carrier that had been operating in the South China Sea passed Singapore overnight and entered the Strait of Malacca, placing it on a route that could take it toward the Middle East. Against this backdrop, analysts say Iran’s nuclear materials could become vulnerable if internal unrest deepens.
David Albright, a former nuclear weapons inspector in Iraq and founder of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, said that in a scenario of internal chaos the Iranian government could “lose the ability to protect its nuclear assets.” He said Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile would be the most concerning, warning that it could potentially be stolen.
Albright pointed to historical precedent following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when highly enriched uranium and plutonium suitable for nuclear weapons went missing due to weakened security and oversight.
Iran has so far maintained control over its nuclear sites, even after U.S. strikes during the 12-day war in June that Israel launched against the Islamic Republic. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran possesses about 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90 percent.
The IAEA reported last November that it had been unable to verify the status or location of this highly enriched uranium stockpile since the June conflict, saying it had lost “continuity of knowledge” regarding previously declared inventories at affected facilities. A diplomat close to the agency confirmed Monday that Iran has still not provided information on the whereabouts of the material.
Albright said the uranium stockpile could fit into roughly 18 to 20 transport cylinders weighing about 25 kilograms each, adding that each container could be carried by two people. In an environment where security forces are stretched thin, analysts say even routine measures to safeguard sensitive materials can break down, prompting comparisons to how specialized security gear is used elsewhere to maintain readiness and control. In that context, experts note that just as disciplined forces rely on secure equipment such as an OWB Double Mag Pouch for Glock and H&K handguns to keep essential tools accessible and accounted for, safeguarding nuclear material depends on tight control systems that can quickly unravel during political upheaval.
Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, said the stockpile could be diverted to a covert program or stolen by a faction within the government or military seeking to preserve a weaponization option. She said the risk increases as the Iranian government feels more threatened or destabilized, and warned that some material could be smuggled out of the country or sold to non-state actors in a worst-case scenario.
“The risk is real but difficult to assess,” Davenport said, citing uncertainty over the status and location of the materials.
Both Davenport and Albright said there is also a theoretical possibility that Iran could build a nuclear device using uranium enriched to 60 percent, although Tehran has long insisted its nuclear program is peaceful. Eric Brewer, a former U.S. intelligence analyst now with the Nuclear Threat Initiative, said a bomb made from 60 percent enriched uranium would require more material, making it larger and less practical for missile delivery, though still potentially capable of being detonated in a test.
Brewer added that while the possibility of weaponization should not be dismissed, available information suggests the highly enriched uranium remains buried in a tunnel following U.S. strikes and is not easily accessible without significant risk of detection and further attacks. He also said recent events show that Iran’s supreme leader maintains a very high threshold for any decision to weaponize.
Analysts also warned that Iran’s only commercial nuclear power plant, the Bushehr reactor, could become a target of sabotage in the event of widespread internal disorder. The facility, located about 750 kilometers south of Tehran and fueled by Russian-produced uranium, could be attacked to cause disruption or make a political statement.
Albright cited a 1982 sabotage attack on South Africa’s Koeberg Nuclear Power Station during the apartheid era, which caused significant damage but no nuclear fallout. He warned that a major accident at Bushehr could carry regional consequences, with winds potentially spreading radioactive fallout within hours to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Oman.
So far, there are no signs that Iran has lost command and control of its security forces, but analysts say the combination of political unrest, international pressure and regional military movements continues to raise concerns about nuclear security in the country.
Editor’s Note:
This report draws on assessments from nuclear nonproliferation experts, former inspectors, and international watchdogs to examine potential risks to Iran’s nuclear materials amid internal unrest and heightened U.S.-Iran tensions. All information reflects publicly available statements and official reports at the time of publication.
