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How a Global War Could Emerge From Several Regional Conflicts - Recap
Iran is already fighting the United States. Yemen’s Houthis are attacking Saudi Arabia. North Korea is firing ballistic missiles again. And behind these flashpoints sit nuclear powers, military alliances and rival superpowers. None of this means World War III is inevitable, but the connections between these conflicts show how quickly a regional crisis could become something much larger.
Photo by Edgar Serrano
The chain began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched major strikes against Iran, hitting nuclear and military infrastructure and killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. Iran retaliated across the region, while the conflict eventually produced a June agreement that later collapsed as fighting resumed.
By September, the conflict had spread far beyond Iran. The Strait of Hormuz became a major pressure point, while attacks and counterattacks threatened commercial shipping and energy exports. On September 8, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it had captured a U.S. autonomous underwater vehicle near the Strait. The following day, the U.S. said it had destroyed five Iranian oil tankers after attempted Iranian attacks on U.S. forces. Brent crude subsequently moved above $100 a barrel.
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Then came Yemen.
The Iran-backed Houthis have become another front in the wider conflict, fighting Saudi-backed forces while threatening shipping around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. On September 19, the Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Riyadh and an Aramco facility. Saudi Arabia said its defenses intercepted a missile headed toward the capital. The United States warned the conflict could escalate rapidly.
The danger becomes greater because Saudi Arabia is no longer standing alone. On August 7, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a mutual-defense agreement stating that an attack on one would be considered an attack on all three. Pakistan is also a nuclear-armed state, while Turkey is a NATO member.
Saudi Arabia has already sought additional air-defense assistance from Pakistan, Britain, France and Egypt as interceptor stocks fall. That shortage is partly linked to the enormous demand created by the simultaneous U.S.-Iran war.
And then another theater moved.
On September 20, North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles from Wonsan. One traveled about 450 kilometers and the other more than 600 kilometers. South Korea, Japan and the United States immediately coordinated their response. It was North Korea's 14th ballistic-missile launch of 2026.
Meanwhile, Russia and China are already deeply involved diplomatically. China has urged Washington and Tehran to return to negotiations, while Russia and China have challenged Western pressure on Iran at the United Nations. Neither has entered the war against the United States, but both could become increasingly important if the conflict expands.
That is the real WWIII scenario: not one country suddenly declaring war on the world, but several crises colliding. A strike on Saudi Arabia could activate its defense pact. A wider Iran-U.S. confrontation could threaten Gulf shipping. A separate North Korean escalation could pull American, Japanese and South Korean forces into another theater.
One miscalculation could then force countries to choose sides faster than diplomats can stop the fighting.
Editor’s Note: This article describes potential escalation pathways, not a prediction that World War III will occur. Current alliances, military commitments and the roles of Russia and China could change rapidly as diplomatic efforts continue.
