Cart
0
Trump Weighs Iran Strike Amid Retaliation Fears
President Donald Trump is weighing potential military strikes on Iran as officials warn Tehran could respond with broader regional attacks, missile strikes, proxy warfare or terrorism if it views U.S. action as an existential threat.
U.S. President Visits USS George Washington by DVIDS
Despite mounting domestic pressures and recent strategic setbacks, Iran retains significant military capabilities that could inflict serious damage on American forces and regional allies, disrupt global energy markets and ignite a prolonged conflict if the United States launches a new military strike, according to former U.S. officials, foreign diplomats and regional analysts.
The potential for Iranian retaliation has factored heavily into President Donald Trump’s deliberations over whether to order military action against Iran following strikes on its nuclear program in June, as well as discussions between Washington and its Middle Eastern allies, according to current U.S. officials.
Gear Spotlight: Relevant to This Story
M18 Enamel Pin – For When It’s Time to Bounce
$9.99
$4.99
SICKNESS FOR THE THICCNESS TEE
$29.99
$14.99
Although Iran responded in June with strikes against Israel and a U.S. base in Qatar, it avoided actions that would have caused American casualties or destabilized Persian Gulf economies. Analysts and former officials say that restraint may not hold if Trump authorizes further military action particularly if Iranian leaders perceive a direct threat to the regime’s survival.
“What could be different this time is that they do try to regionalize this, as opposed to just going after Israel or going after U.S. bases,” said Joseph Votel, a retired four-star Army general who oversaw U.S. forces in the Middle East during Trump’s first term.
Votel, now a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Iran could target oil refineries in Persian Gulf states in an attempt “to drag everybody into this and turn this into a much more protracted conflict.”
The U.S. and Iran are expected to hold another round of diplomatic talks as soon as Thursday, administration officials said. Officials have indicated that Iran must make sweeping concessions on its nuclear program including abandoning uranium enrichment to avoid possible military action.
Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, who is leading the Iran negotiations alongside Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, said over the weekend that there were clear “red lines.”
“Zero enrichment, we have to have the material back,” Witkoff said.
In an interview on Fox News, Witkoff said Trump has questioned why Iran has not agreed to U.S. demands under sustained military and economic pressure. “He’s curious as to why they haven’t, I don’t want to use the word ‘capitulated,’ but why they haven’t capitulated,” Witkoff said.
Trump is weighing a range of military options if diplomacy fails from limited strikes targeting nuclear and missile facilities to a broader campaign aimed at weakening or potentially toppling Iran’s leadership, according to reporting by NBC News.
However, what the president may consider a limited strike could be interpreted very differently by Tehran, particularly if Iranian leaders view it as an existential threat.
“If they see this as an existential threat … their reaction will certainly be disproportionate,” a Middle Eastern diplomat said.
Iran has suffered a series of setbacks over the past year, including the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, heavy damage to its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon and U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear and missile infrastructure in June.
Despite those blows, Tehran retains substantial stockpiles of ballistic and cruise missiles as well as drones. Experts say Iran could strike across the Persian Gulf to sow economic instability and alarm U.S. partners such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Joseph Costa of the Atlantic Council said Iran could calibrate its retaliation depending on the scope of any U.S. attack and escalate further if regime survival appears threatened.
“Iran might calculate it must increase the costs of war,” said Costa, who previously oversaw war planning as a senior Defense Department official during the Biden administration.
Last month, several Arab leaders privately expressed concerns to U.S. officials about potential strikes on Iran, citing doubts about their countries’ preparedness for retaliation, according to NBC News. In recent days, however, those leaders have reportedly been reassured that the U.S. would shield them from Iranian reprisals, three veteran Middle Eastern diplomats said.
Trump on Monday pushed back against reports that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, had raised concerns about insufficient air defense munitions in the region.
Posting on Truth Social, Trump said that while General Caine prefers avoiding war, he believes any military action against Iran “will be something easily won.” Trump added that he would prefer a diplomatic agreement but warned that if no deal is reached, “it will be a very bad day for that Country and, very sadly, its people.”
The U.S. has strengthened air defenses in Qatar and Saudi Arabia and deployed significant naval assets to the region, including the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and the USS Ford, which is expected to arrive soon, according to two people familiar with the deployments. Officials said the carrier groups bolster both offensive and defensive capabilities in the event of Iranian retaliation.
The U.S. also maintains numerous fighter squadrons and other military assets across the Middle East.
More than 30,000 American troops are stationed throughout the region, including in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. Over 35,000 personnel are deployed in and around the Middle East, many at large installations where service members are accompanied by their families. The Navy’s Fifth Fleet operates from Bahrain.
Former officials and analysts warn that any joint U.S.Israeli strike could place those forces at significant risk and create sustained security challenges lasting weeks or months.
Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the expanded U.S. military presence now provides stronger protection than it did during unrest in Iran last month.
At that time, he said, the U.S. had sufficient capability to conduct a punitive strike but lacked adequate defenses for allies and partners. Now, he said, the military appears better positioned to counter potential retaliation, though “no defense is perfect.”
Hossein Kanani, a former officer in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, told NBC News that Iran would likely target U.S. bases overseen by U.S. Central Command in Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain if attacked. He added that European military installations could also become targets if European countries joined a campaign against Iran, although no European nation has indicated it would participate.
“As you know, we don’t like to have any conflict between Arab countries and Iran,” Kanani said from Tehran. “We just only directly attack the bases of the United States and Israel. And European countries, maybe NATO.”
Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York did not respond to requests for comment.
Experts say Iran has three primary avenues for retaliation: direct missile strikes, proxy attacks through groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houthis, and terrorist operations abroad.\
Cancian said U.S. forces in the region provide substantial protection against missile and proxy attacks but warned that a terrorist strike outside the Middle East would likely target civilians and provoke widespread international condemnation.
Following the June airstrikes, authorities in Germany and Denmark uncovered an Iran linked plot targeting Jewish institutions and individuals in Germany. Israel issued warnings about possible Iranian attacks in the United Arab Emirates, and U.S. officials released a terrorism advisory about potential Iranian plots on American soil.
“There’s risk in all of this. None of this is failsafe,” Votel said.
Editor’s Note:
This article is based on reporting from current and former U.S. officials, foreign diplomats and regional analysts regarding ongoing diplomatic and military deliberations between the United States and Iran. Developments remain fluid, and positions described reflect discussions and assessments at the time of publication.
