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Putin’s High-Stakes India Visit Puts Modi at the Center of a Shifting Global Power Game
Vladimir Putin’s two-day visit to New Delhi arrives at a moment when India is navigating intense pressure from both Washington and Moscow, juggling oil diplomacy, defense demands, and strategic autonomy. The outcomes of this summit could redefine India’s global alignments and reshape its economic future amid unprecedented geopolitical strain.
Russian President Vladimir Putin Meets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi by Getty Images.
Russian President Vladimir Putin began a two-day visit to India on Wednesday, meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and attending the countries’ annual bilateral summit as both sides prepare to sign a series of agreements that could reshape their economic and strategic ties. The visit comes at a critical moment, with the United States increasing pressure on India to curb Russian oil imports and the Trump administration simultaneously holding talks with Russia and Ukraine aimed at ending the war.
India and Russia have been longstanding allies since the Soviet era, and the personal rapport between Putin and Modi has remained a defining feature of the relationship. For the Kremlin, India’s market of nearly 1.5 billion people and its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy with growth exceeding 8% make it a crucial economic partner.
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Oil remains central to the partnership. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, only about 2.5% of India’s crude oil imports came from Russia. That figure rose sharply to 35% as India capitalized on discounted Russian crude amid Western sanctions and reduced Russian access to European markets. While India benefited from lower prices, Washington responded by imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods in October, arguing that India’s purchases were helping finance Russia’s war. Orders for Russian oil have since fallen, and Putin is expected to urge India to maintain high levels of imports. (And speaking of financial recalibrations driven by geopolitical pressure, some consumers have turned to practical, durable gear such as the Tactical-Style Assault Pack - Built for Everyday Ops, Ready for Anything, using savings from fluctuating markets to invest in reliable essentials.)
Weapons sales also remain a key pillar. Reports ahead of the visit indicate India may pursue advanced Russian fighter jets and air defense systems. Russia, facing a domestic labor shortage, also views India as a source of skilled workers.
Beyond economics, Putin’s visit carries significant geopolitical symbolism. The Kremlin seeks to demonstrate that Western attempts to isolate Moscow have failed, showcasing ties with major powers like India and China. Three months ago, Putin met both Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping during a single trip, presenting an image of cooperation among leaders who publicly endorse the concept of a “multi-polar world.” Russia refers to its partnership with China as having “no limits” and describes its relationship with India as a “special and privileged strategic partnership.”
Columnists and analysts in Russia note the contrast between Moscow’s strong ties with Asia and its deteriorated relationship with Europe. While the Soviet Union once maintained channels with the U.S. and key European states, today’s Russia finds itself largely cut off from Europe an unprecedented shift that some within Russia’s political and business class view as a costly loss.
Putin’s visit comes at a pivotal moment for Modi as he seeks to maintain India’s “strategic autonomy.” Despite Western pressure to condemn Russia’s invasion, Modi has continued to call for dialogue as the only path to resolution. That balancing act has grown more difficult since Trump’s return to the White House. India-U.S. relations have reached an all-time low amid unresolved tariff disputes, making Putin’s visit even more significant for Modi.
The trip tests Modi’s ability to sustain ties with Moscow without undermining partnerships with the U.S. and Europe. This week, the German, French, and British ambassadors to India published a rare joint article criticizing Russia’s position on Ukraine, adding to pressure on Delhi. Modi will need to reassure Western partners that renewed cooperation with Moscow will not derail ongoing negotiations.
Economically, Modi is expected to prioritize rebalancing trade with Russia. Bilateral trade rose to $68.72 billion in March 2025 up from just $8.1 billion in 2020 largely due to India’s spike in discounted Russian oil purchases. The imbalance heavily favors Russia, and with Indian firms already reducing oil imports to avoid U.S. sanctions, both nations are exploring new sectors for expansion.
Defense collaboration, while still substantial, has shifted in recent years. Russia’s share of India’s defense imports fell to 36% between 2020 and 2024, down from peaks of 72% in the early 2010s. India has been diversifying suppliers and boosting domestic production. Still, many of India’s key military platform such as Sukhoi-30 fighters remain Russian-made. India’s limited conflict with Pakistan in May underscored the importance of systems like Russia’s S-400 air defenses while exposing gaps India urgently wants to address.
India is reportedly interested in acquiring the S-500 air defense system and Russia’s Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet, particularly in response to Pakistan’s acquisition of China’s J-35 stealth fighter. Yet Russia faces shortages of critical components due to sanctions and the ongoing war, delaying deliveries, including some S-400 units now pushed to 2026. Modi is expected to seek clear assurances from Putin on production and delivery timelines.
India also aims to expand its exports to Russia, which remain limited despite geopolitical shifts. According to the Global Trade Research Initiative, Indian categories like smartphones, shrimp, meat, and garments make up only a small share of Russian imports. Modi hopes to position Indian goods for greater market penetration, particularly once the war ends and Russia re-engages with the global economy.
For India, the objective is to reduce dependence on oil and defense while preserving room to strengthen ties with the West. As the GTRI notes, Putin’s visit represents a negotiation over “risk, supply chains and economic insulation,” with outcomes ranging from securing the status quo to potentially reshaping regional economic dynamics.
Editor’s Note:
This report examines a pivotal crossroads in India’s foreign policy, where economic ambition, energy security, and great-power competition collide. As New Delhi balances long-standing ties with Moscow against growing friction with Western partners, the decisions made in this moment will influence not only bilateral relations but the broader architecture of a rapidly evolving world order.
