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Taiwan Issue to Dominate Trump-Xi Beijing Talks
Upcoming Trump-Xi talks in Beijing are expected to focus on Taiwan, raising concerns over potential shifts in U.S. policy toward China and cross-strait relations.
President Donald J. Trump participates in a business event with President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People, Thursday, November 9, 2017, in Beijing, People’s Republic of China. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
Twenty-three million people are not in the room. But everything being discussed affects them directly.
Donald Trump is set to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing next month. And China has already made clear what it wants to talk about first.
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This is a deliberate shift. At the previous Trump-Xi summit in South Korea in 2024, Taiwan was intentionally kept off the agenda. This time Beijing is putting it at the center. That alone tells you something about where China believes this moment is heading.
Taipei is watching every signal coming out of Washington right now.
The concern is specific. Trump's foreign policy has consistently favored transactional deals. Officials in Taiwan are monitoring whether Washington might soften its stance on Taiwan in exchange for economic concessions from Beijing. Increased Chinese purchases of US goods. Relief on trade tensions. Something that gives Trump a win he can point to.
A quieter position on Taiwan would be the price.
China's foreign ministry has already set its terms publicly. Taiwan is a core national interest. Independence for Taiwan is incompatible with stability in the strait. Wu Xinbo of Fudan University put it plainly, saying avoiding major conflict would require the US to stop backing Taiwan independence.
That is not a subtle opening position.
If you have followed this far, here is what makes this more than a diplomatic negotiation.
Taiwan is the world's most critical semiconductor hub. Its geographic position in the western Pacific gives it strategic intelligence value that the US relies on heavily. Advanced monitoring systems on the island are aimed directly at China.
Losing influence over Taiwan is not just a foreign policy setback. It restructures the entire balance of power in the region.
Trump administration officials have pushed back on the concern. They point to arms sales to Taiwan during Trump's second term that have already exceeded those under Biden. Raymond Greene described US commitments to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act as rock solid.
Former Trump adviser Robert O'Brien went further. He said Trump would not want to be remembered as the president who lost Taiwan.
But words and positioning are two different things.
At the 2024 summit, Xi asked the US to adopt language explicitly opposing Taiwan independence. Washington declined. Sources familiar with preparations for the upcoming Beijing meeting say China has continued pushing the same request in ongoing discussions.
They are not dropping it. They are waiting for the right moment to get a different answer.
China conducted military exercises around Taiwan in December following a major US arms deal. Beijing has also been accused of blocking overflight access for Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te during a planned trip. Pressure and incentives running simultaneously.
Taipei's Mainland Affairs Council said it is closely monitoring developments and strengthening communication with Washington. Taiwan's Foreign Ministry noted that US support has been consistently reaffirmed since Trump returned to office.
Consistent reaffirmation is reassuring. Until the meeting starts and the real offers come out.
Trump and Xi in the same room, with Taiwan as the primary agenda item and a transactional dealmaker on one side of the table.
Twenty-three million people are not in that room. But they will feel whatever comes out of it.
Editor's Note: The upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping highlights the continued geopolitical sensitivity surrounding Taiwan. Any shift in rhetoric or policy from the United States could have far-reaching implications for regional stability, cross-strait relations, and broader U.S.-China strategic competition.
